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Has ‘Europe’ Failed?  

2012-08-28 01:29:02|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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原文:纽约时报 2012 08 26

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Op-Ed Contributor

专栏投稿

Has 'Europe' Failed?

"欧洲"已经失败了吗?

By NICHOLAS SAMBANIS

尼古拉斯 山姆班尼斯

Published: August 26, 2012

出版:2012.08.26

New Haven

纽黑文市

Related in Opinion

观点

  • Times Topic: Economy
  • 时报主题: 经济

 

LAST week, European leaders met in Berlin amid new signs of an impending recession and an emerging consensus that Greece could leave the euro zone within a year — a move that would have dire consequences for the currency's future.

上周,欧洲各国领导人在新一轮衰退迫在眉睫的气氛中于柏林会面,并逐渐形成将希腊在一年内开除欧盟的共识——这一迁移行动队货币的未来所产生的后果是非常可怕的。

There are many reasons behind the crisis, from corruption and collective irresponsibility in Greece to European institutional rigidities and the flawed concept of a monetary union without a fiscal union. But this is not just a story about profligate spending and rigid monetary policy. The European debt crisis is not just an economic crisis: it is an escalating identity conflict — an ethnic conflict.

危机背后的原因很多很多,从希腊内部的贪污腐败和集体性的不负责任,到欧洲死板僵化的机制,以及只有货币联盟而没有财政联盟的先天有缺陷的概念。不仅仅是肆意挥霍、僵化死板的货币政策那么简单。欧洲债务危机不仅只是经济危机,而是一场越来越严重的身份冲突——种族冲突。

The European Union was a political concept, designed to tame a bellicose Germany. Strong economic interdependence and a common European identity, it was thought, would be cultivated by the institutions of the union, as Europeans benefited from the economic prosperity that integration would create.

欧盟是个政治概念,其设计目的在于驯服好战的德国。当初的想法是,经济上强烈的相互依赖和统一的欧洲身份,将通过联盟体系培育形成,而欧洲人将从一体化的经济繁荣中获益。

Elites could sell that concept to their publics as long as Europe prospered and had high international status. But the union has lost its shine. It is slowing down and aging. Its longtime ally, the United States, is shifting attention to East Asia. Its common defense policy is shallow.

只要欧洲经济繁荣并获得更高的国际地位,精英们就可以向公众兜售这些概念。但联盟已经失去了其耀眼的光芒。经济发展减速并衰退。其长期盟友,美国,正将注意力转向东亚。共同防御政策也已搁浅。

As Europe's status declines, the already shaky European identity will weaken further and the citizens of the richer European nations will be more likely to identify nationally — as Germans or French — rather than as Europeans. This will increase their reluctance to use their taxes for bailouts of the ethnically different Southern Europeans, especially the culturally distant Greeks; and it will diminish any prospect of fiscal integration that could help save the euro.

欧洲的地位下降,已动摇的欧洲共同体会进一步衰弱,欧洲富国的公民更愿意认为自己是德国人或法国人,而不是欧洲人。如此他们愈加不愿意用他们的纳税来援助在人种上不同的南欧人,尤其是在文化上感觉遥远的希腊人。这将使任何期望通过财政一体化来拯救欧洲的前景变得非常暗淡。

The result is a vicious circle: as ethnic identities return, ethnic differences become more pronounced, and all sides fall back on stereotypes and the stigmatization of the adversary through language or actions intended to dehumanize, thereby justifying hostile actions. This is a common pattern in ethnic conflicts around the world, and it is also evident in Europe today.

其结果就是恶性循环:种族认同回归,而种族差异则变得更加显著,各方重新回到各种陈腔滥调中,通过语言表达的敌意或在行动上越来越趋向不人道,并以此证明敌对行动是正当的。这是全球种族冲突的通常模式,而今天,在欧洲正变得越来越明显。

The slide to ethnic conflict in Europe is not violent, but it can nonetheless be destructive, both economically and politically. Take the roiling tensions between Greece and Germany. A recent survey finds that a majority of Germans want Greece out of the euro if it doesn't reform quickly, even though most analysts say that a Greek exit would have incalculable costs for Germany. Clearly something deeper is motivating the German public.

虽然欧洲滑入种族冲突在表面上并不激烈,但在经济上和政治上却都具有破坏性,并使德国和希腊的关系愈加紧张。最近的一项调查发现:如果希腊不能快速重建,大多数的德国人都会要求将其开除欧盟,尽管多数分析认为希腊的退出将给德国带来不可估量的成本。显然有某些更深层次的东西在鼓动德国公众。

A recent study by the political scientists Michael Bechtel, Jens Hainmueller and Yotam Margalit found that German voters' attitudes toward the bailouts are explained by their degree of "cosmopolitanism," or the extent to which they identify with geographically or culturally distant groups. More cosmopolitan individuals are more likely to support bailing out Germany's southern neighbors.

迈克尔·贝克特尔、杨斯·海姆勒和约塔姆·马嘎利特等政治学者,在最近的研究中发现:德国选民的倾向于提供财政援助的态度,被解释为某种程度的"世界主义",或者,是能在多大程度上认同在地理上或文化上相距遥远的族群。更多的"世界主义者"个体更倾向于支对德国对南方邻居进行财政援助。

Unfortunately, cosmopolitanism can be the first casualty of rising ethnic tensions, as populations react negatively to escalating political demagogy, strengthening the hand of extremists. Examples of such stigmatization in Europe abound, from the disparaging acronym PIGS, used to refer to the troubled economies of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, to the tired medical analogies of an infection of the North by the contagious South. Germans tell the Greeks how to live; the Greeks reply by calling them Nazis.

不幸的是,世界主义会成为加剧种族关系紧张程度的头号原因。面对不断升级的政治煽动,公众的反应是负面的,而极端主义的手段却得到了加强。类似案例在欧洲比比皆是,从歧视性缩写PIGS(笨猪四国)被用来特指经济困难的葡萄牙、意大利、希腊和西班牙,到用医学做类比,说北方是被具有传染性的南部感染了。德国人告诉希腊人该如何生活,而希腊人的回应却是"你们这些纳粹!"

This is not just the result of economic weariness or fear. It is the predictable re-emergence of hard-edged national identities, which the European Union hoped to banish. True, many Greeks, especially those living abroad, still toe the European line about "taking the medicine" prescribed by the European "doctors," no matter how painful.

这不仅仅是经济疲软和恐慌的结果,这预示着锋芒毕露的国家认同重新出现,而这正是欧盟所希望消除的东西。真的,很多希腊人,尤其是住在国外的希腊人,还是愿意按照欧洲"医生"规定的药方"吃药",而不管有多痛。

Why? Some fear the social upheaval that a transition to the drachma would cause. Others worry that populist politicians would abandon all structural reforms without European oversight. But social psychology suggests that many Greeks might be desperately clinging to the last shreds of their European identity, because that gives them more self-esteem than the alternative — the Near Eastern or Balkan identity they have been trying to shed for decades. Greece's wounded reputation makes some Greeks cling to their European identity. But even that may not last long.

为什么会这样?他们害怕社会剧变会让货币变回希腊银币。而另一些人则担心民粹主义政治家会因没有欧盟的监管而放弃所有的社会改革。但社会心理学暗示希腊人可能会拼命的执着于保持其残破的欧洲人身份,是因为这能给他们带来更多的自尊,相反,近东的或巴尔干半岛身份,他们已在数十年里竭力加以摆脱。希腊已受损的声誉让某些希腊人竭力坚持其欧洲人身份,即使这拖延不了太久。

Germans must have a frank public discussion about what it means to be European, how good European citizens should behave toward other Europeans and why a strong Europe is good for German interests in a world dominated by the United States, China and emerging powers like India and Brazil. Without such a discussion, and real concessions to Greece, a Greek exit is inevitable — and with it the triumph of parochialism in Europe.

德国人必须坦率的公开讨论:欧洲人意味着什么,好的欧洲公民应如何对待其他欧洲人,以及为什么一个强大的欧洲,在美国、中国和诸如巴西等新兴大国主宰整个世界的状况下,是有利于德国利益的。不通过这样的讨论,对希腊做出实质性让步,希腊的退出将不可避免——而这样意味着狭隘主义在欧洲获胜。

--------------------------------

Nicholas Sambanis is a professor of political science and the director of the Program in Ethics, Politics and Economics at Yale.

尼古拉斯 山姆班尼斯,耶鲁大学政治学教授,伦理学、政治学和经济学项目主任。

 

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